Insights
Insights and perspectives on Franco-Chinese energy
AFE Insights | IAEA Raises Nuclear Capacity Forecast to 2060, SMRs Take Center Stage
At its 70th General Conference, the IAEA raised its nuclear capacity forecast for the sixth consecutive year, extending the projection horizon to 2060 for the first time: under the high-case scenario, capacity could reach an upper limit of 1,284 GW — 3.4 times the end-2025 level. Small modular reactors' (SMR) projected share has jumped sharply from last year, with North America expected to source roughly 60% of new capacity from SMRs. But there's another side to the coin: nuclear's share of electricity generation actually declined last year, and with two-thirds of operating reactors having run for more than 30 years, retirement pressure is mounting.

